Breaking News

[lagilman]

submitted without comment:

-- Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch from the Republican to the Democratic Party, multiple sources tell CNN.

Comments

[arouraleona.livejournal.com]

...

[jperceval.livejournal.com]

I just saw this myself. Not quite sure what to make of it. Is it genuine, or just a gambit to hold onto his seat?

[lagilman]

Probably a little of both. He's out of step with where the GOP is going, and knew he couldn't hope to win running as a Republican, so...


It's a foxhole conversion that may or may not take. I'll sit back and watch and wait.

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

Personally, I don't think his stance will change much on major issues (where in some cases he agreed with the democrats anyway), but on the lesser ones, where that whole enforced GOP unity thing would have stopped him, he may side with the more liberal wing of the Democratic party, which will definitely speed matters up in the house.

On the flip side, Minnesota has just shifted from stall to reverse, I suspect.

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

Word is that there may be pressure from the Dems to stop the stonewalling and seat Franken. "Seat Al or we keep Specter's committee seats."

The Minnesota thang has already gone into reverse--for Coleman and, by now, Pawlenty.

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately, this is not in either Senate Party's control. The Republican caucus can and swiftly will vote to change their representation on committees, without Democratic feedback. It will be up to the Democrats to decide where to seat him, I suspect he will end up chairing at least one significant committee..

As far as Minnesota, that is all being funded and driven by the NRCC, which is not going to bow to public pressure, and the Republican senators cannot alienate because they need the money from them.

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

As I understand it, as the majority party the Dems can control how many seats the Pubbies get on committees, and they can stonewall the Pubbies on Specter's committee seats in retaliation for the Pubbies stonewalling on Franken.

The NRSC (not CC) is running into diminishing returns with Coleman. His career is shot. Pawlenty has his eye on 2012 with this, but with 21% self-identification as Republican nationwide, he has to court the Independents--and they want this game over.

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

While they technically can control the number of seats, in practice, this would be a true Nuclear option.

Holding up confirmations could work, but still would be exceedingly rancorous.

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

The observation I've seen from the Senate-savvy is that the Dems can put a hold on the new organizing resolution. That's not a nuclear option. That's a smile with a medium-sized stick.

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

...after all, there are all these Pubbie holds on thisthattheother. What's one more from the Dems?

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

They can, its just very rarely done, it's considered very much interfering with the other parties internal matters

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

I think at this point, with all the Pubbie holds on appointments (HHS being one of the most egregious) plus the Coleman gambit, the Pubbies may have kicked sand in the Dems' faces just a smitch too often. Not to say the Dems might not cave again, lord knows it's what they do best, but...

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

That might work for committees, but its not going to sway the NRCC in MN, sadly. Until they issue a cert of election, the Senate really can't seat Franken (okay, technically they can, but the resultant stink will linger for years)

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

The NRSC is having its own kind of trouble. The more independent voters it alienates, the smaller the pie it has to slice from, the fewer candidates it can push into the Senate, the more marginal it becomes. Its base will stick to it at all costs, but that is shrinking.

If Snowe turns--and I don't know that she will, but she might--there's even less reason to keep Franken out. The NRSC will find itself playing a game that serves no purpose but to make them a national joke.

I just don't see what advantage they're getting from the game any more. The longer they play it, the more ill-will they collect. They're not helping their brief, which is to get Pubbie candidates into the Senate.

[jslinder.livejournal.com]

You are assuming they are thinking rationally, in this case I suspect their attitude is that if the Dems lock 60, they will pass items without any Republican input. Assuming those items are successful, it further hurts them, therefore, the ability to be the 'Party of No' must be protected.

[dancinghorse.livejournal.com]

In that case, great. Let them marginalize themselves into nonexistence. They're down to 21%. At this rate they'll drop to single digits. Then another major party will emerge to fill the gap.

They had this thing about the government, the baby, and the bathwater. I guess they were projecting.

[nycdeb.livejournal.com]

realllllllllllllly. interesting

[shsilver.livejournal.com]

I do find it interesting that he referenced Jim Jeffords in his statement.

[wedschilde.livejournal.com]

i wonder if he gets a free coffee mug.

[camille-is-here.livejournal.com]

As a Pennsylvanian and a pretty staunch Dem, I have often voted for Arlen Spector. I don't always agree with him, and didn't vote for him a couple of times after the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas debacle, but he always votes a strict interpretation of the constitution, and he's a decent moderate who works hard for Pennsylvania.

[burger-eater.livejournal.com]

His switch mirrors the switch many of his Republican supporters have made. The man is following his constituency.

[rwglaub.livejournal.com]

He's another one of those "I didn't leave the Republican Party, the party left me."