How To Predict the Plot

May. 13th, 2026 07:15 pm
stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
 There's a pattern to all scene plotting, and if you know what it is, you can predict almost anything in a story. So don't read this if you want to preserve your literary virginity.
 
Conflict always starts because the protagonist wants something, and something else stands in the way. This want can be anything from, "I want her to go out with me" (in which the obstacle is the character's insecurity) to "I want to survive this gunfight without getting my ear shot off" (in which the obstacle is five men who keep shooting back).
 
You can predict the outcome by looking at how the protagonist views the conflict. There are two ways: 1) the protagonist is sure of the outcome; or 2) the protagonist unsure of the outcome. Let's look at these.
 
In the first case, the protagonist is completely certain the conflict will end a certain way. James is completely confident that she'll agree to go out with him; that his plan will succeed; that he can beat up his rival. In this case, James will fail. She turns him down flat. His plan collapses. The rival beats the tar out of him. Why? It's a surprise plot twist! The writer sets things up so James can't help but succeed, and knows it. So of course, he fails. Every time.
 
The reverse is also true, by the way. If James is certain he's going to fail, he'll unexpectedly succeed. He's certain she'll turn him down, but he asks anyway, just to prove how much of a schlub he is, but—surprise!—she says yes. His plan is stupid and won't work, but he tries anyway, but—ta da!—it works. There's no way he'll be able to win this fight, but he can't avoid it, so he braces himself for a beating, but—twist!—he gets in a lucky punch and down goes the bad guy.
 
This is a hubris thing. James cockily decides he's going to win, so he has to lose in order to bring him down a peg. Or it's a the-gods-show-pity thing. James is sad that he's going to lose, so he has to succeed to give him a little boost.
 
In the second case, James is actually worried about the outcome. He's nervous about asking her out because she might say yes, but she could also say no—and she says yes. The plan might succeed, but it probably won't, and when we put it into action, it works. The fight could go either way, and it goes to James. Authors do this to create suspense. Will James succeed or fail? Keep reading to find out!
 
Except now that you know the pattern, you don't need to keep reading to find out—you'll already know.
 
Just kidding! Keep reading. The story is still fun.
 
alfreda89: (Merlyn)
[personal profile] alfreda89
The Milky Way Photographer of the Year awards were announced today. Here's a sample of the photos.


https://www.popsci.com/science/milky-way-photographer-of-the-year-2026/?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

(no subject)

May. 9th, 2026 02:04 pm
[personal profile] martianmooncrab
I got burned out on all my appointments, and then the weather improved, so I have been working in the yard and making some minor headway.

Like, getting the blackberries and the trash trees dug out of my flower beds, tubs and anywhere else they have magically appeared.

Slowly, mind you, but still I am making inroads.

Health is slowly improving a bit, my heart has actually healed from the medication induced congestive failure two years ago, its now 2 sizes smaller! My grinch reversal I say. The left floppy ventricle has also tightened up, yeah, its still a slacker, but not as bad. Waiting on new psoraisis medication, they denied the move to Skyrizi and now I am supposed to get Stelara. who knows. Getting new oropedic shoes, and they are slip ons, plus they have a variety of colors and styles, I getting a coral pair (its a lavender) and brown ones with cheetah print.

Still struggling with deep feelings of loss, I still processing my friend T's death last month, and one of my former work friends lost her husband of 40 years last week.

Getting a lot of spam calls on my cell phone, its really obvious when the phone says the call is from Legacy Health and the chipper accented voice tells me they are AT&T. I hang up and block.

Today, meeting eldest niece to see the Sheep Detectives movie, the books were a delight. So, great anticipation... speaking of which, they had the broadway cast of rocky horror do Sweet Transvestite on Jimmy Fallon the other night, and Luke Evans was Dr Frank n Furter.... omg... one of the best I have seen (no one can outdo Tim Curry! so if you want, look up the clip on utube. or wherever they have it. loved the patterned tights too.

Moving on in the Writer Life

May. 8th, 2026 08:26 pm
jreynoldsward: (Default)
[personal profile] jreynoldsward

I’ve not been writing much of late because I’ve been involved with the process of not only moving all of my work off of Draft2Digital but revising my entire catalog—new covers, adding hardcover versions, updating back matter, all things that needed to be done. Since I had to do certain things as a part of removing work from D2D, I decided that the long-postponed full catalog update needed to happen. I suppose I could classify all this as writing business, which—is an important facet of being a writer.

 

But this effort has allowed me to reevaluate what I want to do as a writer and where I go next, which I now realize is something I needed to do.

 

Meanwhile, everything’s off of D2D. I’m now in the process of reestablishing a couple of direct accounts and setting up new accounts with a couple of distributors. It really helps that in one private forum several other writers shared their income sources and, for all of them, D2D was a minor share in this past year. To me, that’s telling.

 

Now that I’m done with it, what I’m feeling is…honestly, relief. I suspect that I’ve had something niggling at me about needing to move on from D2D for some time now. That it’s exhausted its usefulness for me. I didn’t use it for formatting, sales of hard copies, or for paying anthology contributors—just for distributing ebooks. I think my business mind has been poking at me subconsciously, letting me know that I needed to change things up, especially in the era of generative AI. That while working with distributors is a necessary evil, my writing future when it comes to discoverability depends on doing things differently and moving beyond distributors, while still using a select group of them rather than a scattergun approach and trying to be everywhere.

 

Before I go into what I am considering doing, let me indulge myself in a minor rant.

 

For those who say that D2D’s new fees are just the first sign that fee-charging will become a means for sorting out AI slop from genuine human creation, I have…serious doubts. Let me explain.

 

I’ve been suspicious of some of the justifications people have given for supporting that account maintenance fee, and the other day I realized why. It’s the same sort of language that I’ve seen used to justify charging submission fees for magazines. For spending huge amounts of money on editing for work being submitted to traditional publishing. Criminy, some of these rationales were trotted out years ago for justifying paying huge fees to agents for manuscript evaluations! I was seeing arguments over whether fee-charging agents (above and beyond the cut they take from advances) was a Good Idea since I was a baby writer, with the implication that fee-charging agents would become the norm.

 

There’s a certain sameness to all of these arguments. An implicit assumption that financial gatekeeping is a Good Thing Which Will Keep The Great Unwashed From Participating In Publishing And Leave More Room For Me.

 

Ick.

 

I’m not a fan of gatekeeping in any form when it comes to creative work. One person’s yum is another person’s yuck—and it’s always been that way. Part of my opinion is shaped by my realization a few years back that what I write is not everyone’s cup of tea, no matter how well I write (one particularly painful four-star review from a writing contest slammed that one home, hard—the reviewer did not like how I structured my magic system and the only reason I got a four-star review was due to the quality of the writing, because they judged me using a matrix system). Another part is my firm belief that financial gatekeeping only harms the overall body of creative work. How many wonderful stories are lost because of an author’s financial circumstances? How many authors are unable to find the time and energy to create because they’re working at day jobs that exhaust them?

 

Eh, that’s probably an argument that will go on forever.

 

In any case, I’m moving on. Oh, I could pay that damned fee. It’s not like I’m starving in a garret somewhere. But I looked at where I’ve been making sales, especially in the past few years, and decided that I needed a greater flexibility to experiment, both with individual distributors and with creative options. I wanted to cut out the middleman between me and the reader and—that means going direct with distributors. Yes, that means my work is available in fewer venues, but…I wasn’t selling in most of those places, anyway.

 

The other thing is that I want more security, so that problems with one distributor doesn’t affect my other distributors. I’ve been a loud proponent of “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” and, well…it was time to walk my talk.

 

Enough explanation and haranguing about why I left D2D. The theme of this essay is moving on, so…what do I mean when I say I’m moving on?

 

Well, first of all, I put everything into hard copy on Ingram, with all but two novellas available in both paperback and hardcover. I’ve been following publishing trends, and my sales also suggest that people are looking for hard copies. Ingram also allows for me to sell direct from them, with only printing fees and a small percentage to them—which is a much better return than what I get when one of their distributors sells that hard copy.

 

I’m contemplating doing something zineish in hard copy with some of my worldbuilding short stories. I did that years ago when I was selling work at bazaars and such, and I’m still mulling over how best to make that work, especially given the price of shipping these days. Perhaps a bundle of separate short stories?

 

I tweaked the themed samplers I made as part of my newsletter welcoming sequence to hand out as part of a presentation I made as a keynote speaker for my local Soroptimists District Meeting, and people seemed to like that. I plan to make some more with a heavier emphasis on the regional ties of my stories, and try to get them out locally as giveaways during tourist season.

 

I’m looking at my assorted short stories. Yes, I put the fantasy stories into their own collection, but I want to find a new way to get all of my short stories out. Putting them out through distributors doesn’t really work because of pricing that would make the effort worthwhile. These days I don’t really have the energy to do in-person sales events, where I was selling them. I have unpublished stories that I’m reluctant to send out because…well…visibility and the sheer volume of competition for fewer and fewer slots.

 

I set up a Patreon and am now trying to figure out what I do next with it. There are several projects that I could run through it in serial form, but…they’re vastly different, ranging from some very oddball western-themed SF to a memoir about horses I’ve known. How best to attract people who would support all of it? That’s something I’m still contemplating.

 

All in all, though, what my gut is telling me is that I need to find more ways to engage with potential readers. Not just through promotion but through finding means to make a more direct connection.

 

Where will that lead me?

 

Well, I’m still figuring it out. Follow along for the journey.

 

Like what you’re reading? Check out my website at https://www.joycereynolds-ward.com. You’ll find my books there with links updated as I progress through this process. You’ll find some interesting sales at my Itch site—find it here: https://joycereynoldsward.itch.io/. Or if you just want to give me a tip, then feel free to throw a few coins my way at my Ko-fi, https://ko-fi.com/joycereynoldsward. Every little bit helps! And if I get enough pennies, I might…actually make a couple of audiobooks. But that’s a ways off, alas.


stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
 
The French Quarter sits at a bend in the Mississippi River. The upper end is where the partying happens. Down closer to the river is the artsy district, where things are more genteel. Little shops of oddities, restaurants, a standing art festival. A wrought-iron fence surrounds Jackson Square, and artists hang their work on it for sale. Some artists also do caricatures and portraits. The area in front of the cathedral is a regular street theater spot. Jazz bands, an acrobatic clown, and singers rotate through. I haven't been able to figure out if it's a show-up-and-grab-it kind of thing or if there's some kind of schedule. But it's good entertainment.
 
There's also a long row of psychic readers at little tables under umbrellas.

Hmmm. I've been reading Tarot cards since I was six and I learned palmistry when I was in college. I know exactly how this kind of thing goes. I know what kind of predictions are possible and what aren't. I also know what frauds do to fool people.
 
I've never had a psychic reading done by someone who didn't know that I'm an expert reader myself. It would be a waste of money, since I can my own reading. Today I decided to have one done, just to see what would happen.
 
The reader, whose table sign said she was a "True Gypsy Fortuneteller," greeted me and told me I could pay at the end of the reading. She had me spread my hands, palm up, on her table. She glanced at them and read them to me. Then she did a Tarot spread—of only four cards. She dealt them quickly and covered them with a paperweight. I could barely make them out and had to ask her what they were. She told me the cards only worked for a year into the future, and she gave me the card reading.
 
I knew from the first few seconds that she was a complete fraud, from beginning to end and side to side. It was all show. Even she didn't believe what she was saying.
 
Here's what she told me about my hands and my cards.
 
Hands: "You have a stubborn streak and want to get your own way a lot. What's your mother's name? [I told her.] Ah! You have a lot of her in you. You have a long lifeline, so you'll have a long and healthy life. You tend to overthink, and it gets in your way sometimes."
 
Cards: "You lost some money in 2025. You will come into some money in 2026, though. You're in a stable place in your life." [And a couple other things I forget.]
 
Did you catch all that? ALL of it could apply to just about anyone. Everyone likes to get their own way. Everyone has their mother in them. I do overthink, she had that right, but it's a very common trait, and she did notice that I hovered a little near her table before sitting down. Overthinking. I retired in 2025, so my income dropped—loss of money—but almost everybody loses money in some way in a given year, and her prediction that more money is to come is a standard upbeat ending to a fake reading. And the word "stable" is so vague as to be meaningless. Stable at relationships? Money? Health? What? It could apply to anyone, from the right point of view. And if she got the long life thing wrong, I literally wouldn't be around to complain about the fact.
 
(As it happens, I do have a long life line, but in bright sunlight, it looks short because it fades for a while before deepening again. A reader who took a glance like she did should say I have a short lifeline. It takes a longer look to see the continuation, and she definitely didn't look. So she was right, but for the wrong reasons.)
 
Also, she didn't actually point out my lifeline—she only mentioned it. In fact, she didn't point out ANY lines. I doubt she knew anything about palmistry at all. Additionally, she didn't ask if I were right or left-handed, essential for a palm reading. Pfffff!
 
The cards she dealt that I could see were the Chariot and the Four of Wands. The chariot indicates being pulled in two different directions and having to fight to keep things under control. It's a powerful Arcana card and it rates special mention. She didn't say anything about it. The Four of Wands indicates reaping rewards for hard work and for bringing community together. She didn't mention that, either. She also didn't say which cards were for the present and which were for the future.
 
Faker!
 
Now, I'm not saying that I'm an especially powerful psychic or even a psychic at all. I =am=, however, an expert at Tarot cards and I'm a passable palm reader. I've studied many different Tarot decks, many different Tarot spreads, and many different systems of palmistry. This woman didn't even come close to using any of them correctly. She was just giving vague patter, a showperson, entertaining tourists who want to say they got a reading from a real New Orleans psychic.
 
I was pretty sure this was going to be the case when I first sat down, so I didn't feel any animosity toward her and her business. But I couldn't quite let her get away with the deception, either, especially when it was so blatant.
 
When she finished, I asked to see the Chariot card. A little startled, she turned it so I could see. "Usually this card means inner conflict," I said casually. "Though this is a different deck than I'm used to. It has a centaur instead of chariot driven by opposing horses. I favor the Robin Wood deck, myself, but I first learned to read on the Ryder-Waite deck."
 
"Oh," she said blandly. "Yes. The Ryder-Waite deck is so traditional."
 
"Very," I said. "They like to deal the Death card in movies to be scary, even though the card isn't supposed to be scary, and it's always from the Ryder-Waite deck. Annoying."
 
I gave her a cheery wave and left.
 
Was I mean? Nah. She should have known I knew what was going on when the reading began.
 
 
alfreda89: (Peppermint Peach Tree)
[personal profile] alfreda89
I'd need a bigger guest room, and the shower somewhere I would not think about cleaning it all the time.

But this was done with love, taken care of, and the SCENERY!

It is, alas, out of budget.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4385-Wildwood-Ln-Anacortes-WA-98221/23383466_zpid/?

Michigan Wow

May. 5th, 2026 11:31 pm
stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
 We have some WOW news!

For the non-Michiganders in the room, our state senate stands at 19 Democrat, 18 Republican. One senate seat has been open, though, and the special election for it was today. If the GOP candidate took the seat, our senate would be tied 19/19, with the lieutenant governor (Democrat) the tie-breaker. In our state, legislation needs at least 20 votes to pass, so Republicans would have effectively had veto power by being able to withhold a vote to prevent a tie and the LT's ability to weigh in. Our house is GOP, so that would have meant a lot of trouble. Stakes are high.

The 35th district went for Kamala Harris by a tiny bit, and we were nervous this would be a squeaker.

Chedrick Greene, the Democrat, trounced the Republican candidate 60% to 38%.

!!

This is the EPITOME of over-performing. In fact, it's over-performing at max level! It follows the long-running pattern of Democrats flipping red districts or at least getting a higher percentage of votes than they did at the last election. But this time the percentage is HUGE. The Dems destroyed the GOP in a purple district in a state that went to the baboon last election.

And oh yeah--Greene is African-American. His opponent Jason Tunney is white, and middle-Michigan, shall we say, leans to the Confederacy.

The mid-terms are looking very, very bad for the baboon's GOP.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/05/michigan-35th-senate-district-special-election-results-chedrick-greene-jason-tunney/89954800007/

It's Cheap!

May. 5th, 2026 01:21 pm
stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
I've noticed that on local message boards, people always ask for a local business that will do some service or other for cheap. No one ever asks for a mid-priced service or "the best one in town, money is no object!" Always, it's the cheapest one. Price is the #1 concern.
One woman said she was planning a "micro-wedding," which apparently has way fewer guests but (the wedding industry hurries to mention) has all the trappings of a full-blown wedding. The bride was looking for a florist, but was having trouble because all of them have minimum order requirements for customized wedding bouquets, and she just didn't have time to buy flowers and make the bouquets herself. Did anyone know of a florist that would make a particular bouquet (she attached a photo of an orchid bouquet) for cheap? I had to laugh at her. She's basically asking if anyone knows of a bakery that will make and decorate three cupcakes based on a recipe she provides. No. Just, no.
In my experience, local businesses tend to charge about the same price as their competitors. If one was able to undercut all the others by being "cheap," they'd get all the business. And if "cheap" is your only criteria ... well, you get you pay for.
Still, it's cheap! 

Micro-Weddings?

May. 5th, 2026 01:20 pm
stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
My previous post mentioned "micro-weddings." I looked them up briefly to be able to comment on them in the context of the post. Then, out of morbid curiosity, I read more about them. Turns out, micro-weddings are complete horseshit created by the wedding industry.

Are we surprised?

You would think from the name that a micro-wedding is a step above eloping. You get married at a courthouse or by a friend who got clergy papers online, with maybe one attendant per new spouse, then go to a restaurant or someone's home for some nice food and a bit of Costco cake. The idea is to have a wedding but not break the bank with a huge reception. Micro, right?

Of course not.

It seems that micro-weddings are for a mere 20 to 50 people. Also, the wedding industry is quick to say that you're supposed to have ALL the trimmings of a full-sized wedding. Dress, tux, custom bouquets, special boutonnieres, engraved rings, curated music, romantic reception at a unique or special location (like a rented winery, or perhaps a beach in Fiji) with fancy food, a decorated cake, and lively music.

Oh yes--the budget is anything under $20,000. (!)

I don't know about you, but spending $20,000 on a wedding for fifty people in a "unique" rented space doesn't sound to me at all "micro." It's blatantly obvious that someone out there created the idea of a micro-wedding as I described it in the second paragraph, and the wedding industry, terrified the idea would catch on, glommed onto it and loudly proclaimed that OF COURSE micro-weddings are the latest thing in economizing, but it's not a true micro-wedding without all the trappings of a full wedding.

That way, the only person who loses is the caterer. And the wedding couple, who spent the down payment on a house on their micro-wedding.
 

Pickle Bucket Drummers

May. 3rd, 2026 04:31 pm
stevenpiziks: (Default)
[personal profile] stevenpiziks
I'm in New Orleans. I have made a decision:
 
I don't like pickle-bucket drummers.
 
They're all over the place in the French Quarter. You get out of earshot of one, and right into earshot of another. What about it bothers me? I LIKE drumming. When I went to Pagan gatherings, the constant drumming was soothing. I should like these too, right? Today I figured out what it is. The pickle bucket drums have only one tone: sharp and piercing. There's no mellower bass tone to balance this out. It's all PLOCK PLOCK PLOCK, and no BOOM BOOM BOOM. 
 
I understand why pickle bucket drummers exist. Pickle buckets are free from any dumpster, so all you need is a pair of cheap drumsticks and a sense of rhythm. You can be a busker for nothing, which is important if you have nothing to start with.
 
This doesn't make the performance any more enjoyable, though.
 
djonn: Self-portrait, May 2025 (Default)
[personal profile] djonn

For such readers as are still following along despite my irregular blogging pace (and yes, I can hear you laughing on the other end of the fiber-optic lines), a Note:

This journal isn't going anywhere, but news is likely to be even more scattered in the next few weeks than usual. Your correspondent is moving - purely locally, mind you - to a different sector of Darkest Suburbia (indeed, somewhat closer to what might be counted as Downtown Darkest Suburbia, which is not quite the contradiction in terms that the coinage suggests).

You do not want to know how many boxes and how much packing and organizing this involves. Trust me on this.

At the other end of the move, however, there will be considerably more living space, an actual guest bedroom (which will require a guest bed to go with it), and (wonder of wonders) a slightly oversized one-car garage - or, as we lifestyle non-drivers like to refer to such things, a badly needed Very Large Closetâ„¢.

And possibly, once the dust settles, I'll actually manage to start posting more often....

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