Wednesday is a slippery slide... (no, really. Look at all that ice!)

[lagilman]

In all the chaos and contests yesterday, I almost forgot...

Three years ago I officially took residence of this apartment, having hauled self, felines, and books back "home" from my two year stay in Connecticut.

[nice place, Connecticut, but not where I felt comfortable staying, long-term. It's very...suburban. Even in New Haven]

I blogged about the two year point. Now I am at three. I've renewed old friendships and made new, renovated a kitchen and a bathroom, begun a new relationship, written umpity books (nine? Ten?) and discovered that yes, I was right: New York City is home.

Mind you, I'm still a roamer. Give me half an excuse and I'll be off on a wander. But New York lets me go and welcomes me home, and never once gets jealous when I fall in love with other cities. And when I am here, she gives me her energy, her creativity, her craziness and her crankiness. And I love it all.

Yeah, even the snow*.

---------------------------
*Meanwhile, the American Midwest is getting slammed with the hot style of this winter (shitloads of snow), Mount Shinmoe in Japan is erupting, and Queensland is braced for Yasi. Our current dose of icestorm is not even worth whimpering over, really.


I am hoping like hell the folk down in Queensland learned the lessons from Katrina and got the HELL out when evacuation was suggested, but human nature ever seems to be "I can withstand a little storm." Dude, no, you can't. You can replace things, you can't replace you. Get. Out.

Comments

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

As far as Yasi is concerned, the advice is 'Hunker down and hope for the best'. It's now too late to get out, and anyone caught outside will be in extreme danger.

I used to think Australia was a country of sun and dryness. After my first visit last year, I know otherwise - even the Outback was covered with puddles - and it seems to have rained heavily there for much of the last half year.

[lagilman]

yes, which is why I used the past tense "got the HELL out" rather than "gets the HELL out."

Have just gotten report from Geoff, who is safe in Hong Kong awaiting his next flight homward, that his Land Rover was almost swamped by gusts on the way to the airport. Huzzah for wind-resistant Land Rovers and nonchalant scientists...


As for weather... but climate change is just a myth/overreaction/nothing we can do about it not our fault anyway, donchaknow....

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

Yep. Just noting that it's too late now.

And Landies are notoriously difficult vehicles to disconcert, though it is possible. There's a reason why just about every farmer in the UK used to have one as their primary work vehicle.

Climate change? That's a difficult subject, because you can't blame one storm, or even one year's local weather on climate change. It's a bit like throwing a coin half a dozen times, and it coming up heads each time: it might be pure chance, expected one time in 64 on a fair coin, or it might be because the coin has no tails. When you throw it a couple of hundred times and it comes up heads each time, then you can be pretty sure. Climate gives you the probability that certain types of weather will happen, and climate change is a change in those probabilities. But until you look at a sufficiently long period, over a sufficiently large area, you can't be sure that change has occurred.

Which is why it's so bl**dy difficult to get the deniers to accept it - they'll point to that one year where the trend wasn't followed, or to heavier snow in their region, or whatever.

And meanwhile the world gently burns.

[lagilman]

they'll point to that one year where the trend wasn't followed, or to heavier snow in their region, or whatever.

Or be intentionally or ignorantly obtuse and say "how can there be global warming when it's such a cold winter, huh?" Which just makes me look at them and wonder how many times their momma dropped them on their head, and if it was intentional.....

People who refuse to listen when scientists say "um, you guys might want to consider these facts..." are like people who insist that they can't be overdrawn because they still have checks left. IMGDNSHO.

[6-penny.livejournal.com]

I pointed out to a financial-type skeptic the variability in short term graphs of stock market prices and how they can deceive with regard to long term trends. There was silence and then a thoughtful"Ooh". Maype I eddicated someone!

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

Now that's a good way of doing at it - appeal to their area of expertise for support for the concept.

Nicely done.

[rosefox]

Welcome home. *)

Re: Yasi

[gothicsparrow.livejournal.com]

There haven't been any reported deaths so far, which is most excellent, but there's been people who had to shelter out part of the cyclone in their car because their house broke. It's probably too early for anyone not in the area to say what kind of damage has been done yet, though.

It's kind of been natural disaster season here this summer, not to mention the rest of the world...

Re: Yasi

[bellinghman.livejournal.com]

And still none - not even serious injury - which, when you compare it to Katrina, seems pretty near miraculous.

On the other hand, I get the impression that the Australian authorities were serious about preparations, and the citizenry serious about it too. Also, a lack of levees to be overtopped will remove another potential complication.

Re: Yasi

[lagilman]

The lack of levees is a major complication removed, absolutely. Also, none of the "is it or isn't it a bad storm" that Katrina came in with - she changed direction within hours of landfall, if I remember correctly, which caused everyone to scramble.

But "okay, do not wish to die" is an excellent attitude to take into any major weather event. (actually, it's an excellent attitude to take, period). I've seen too many schmucks insisting they can withstand a Cat 3 hurricane, locally and I think "dude, please tell me you did not reproduce..."

[badgermirlacca.livejournal.com]

Has it really been three years already? It really doesn't seem that long. I still think of your place in Connecticut and how wonderful it looked. (Not insulated properly, perhaps, but still. I love those old Victorian houses.)

And second the motion about folks evacuating, if there's any possible way. So much is dreadful out there.