this is not an essay

[lagilman]

Watching the news coming out of Egypt this week, I keep being struck by one phrase, over and over again. "30-year rule."

I am a citizen of the United States. I was raised with the idea of a peaceful democracy, where every four years there is a more-or-less orderly transition of government. It is, I suspect, one of the reasons why we tend to take a lot of things we should protest against - because we know, sooner rather than later, we will get a voice in what comes next.

[how well that voice is heard, and the limitations of a majority voice vs a sizable minority voice, are things for another think]

The idea of a government - one leader, specifically - continuing for a decade, or several decades... I am a creature of my upbringing. I cannot think this is a healthy thing.

No matter how perfect a leader at point A, things change. Countries change, worlds change, people change. And the isolation/idolation of long-term leadership seems almost inevitably to lead -- if not to corruption, than certainly to disconnection. And then, near-inevitably, a refusal on the part of the people to be ignored.

If the two conflict, as they will... violence.

And, after so long a rule, a sense of the unknown, the unknowable. If the structure is broken down, where does the new structure come from?

I am, by training and preference, a historian, not a political theorist. I can't comment with specific accuracy on what's going on outside my own political surroundings, and I am hesitant to make comments about someone else's government when my own is hardly perfect. That's not only arrogant, it's rude. But history tells us that revolution - the disorderly change of a political structure -- is an unpredictable beast. Sometimes it leads to a better day, a stronger country, a healthier and vital nation.

Sometimes, it doesn't.

I have no idea what will come out of Egypt - indeed, the entire Middle East, in the immediate future, after this week. Perhaps nothing will change. Perhaps everything will. I hope that it will be healthy change. I hope that it will be peaceful, focused on bettering the lives of the people who birthed it in positive ways, creating a structure that will give them a voice, and a means to express their will, whatever that will might be.

Do I hope that it is also friendly to the western nations? Of course. I am tired of hate, I am tired of war, and I am tired of Us vs Them at a personal and a global level. (I am, I discover to my amusement, that much of an innocent). But I have also seen what happens, historically, when one government attempts to install a "friendly" regime somewhere else. Better to let the people choose.

I wish you good luck, Egypt. Good luck, to all of us.

EtA: Egypt is taken off-line by its government
The NYT updates the situation, as best they can

Comments

[mizkit.livejournal.com]

*applause*

[arouraleona.livejournal.com]

Being in Thailand on Thai internet I'm honestly a little hesitant to say how much I agree with the long-term rule of a single individual point ...

But as far as Egypt goes (and Tunisia as well), I hope they use this to build themselves a better home.

[ckd]

More to the point, remember that Mubarak took office after Anwar Sadat was assassinated. Sadat took office after Nasser died of a heart attack. The last time the leadership of Egypt changed without a death was in 1954, and that was after a "power struggle" won by Nasser. Election? What election?

[fakefrenchie.livejournal.com]

I'm following this situation in France. It doesn't look good.

[lagilman]

"Good" is an odd word, in this context. Good for whom? Can good come out of violence like this?

Maybe. But I am doubtful, based on history in general, and the history of Egypt and the Middle East overall.

[saladinahmed.livejournal.com]

"But I have also seen what happens, historically, when one government attempts to install a "friendly" regime somewhere else."

It's worth pointing out that this is precisely what's up in Egypt today. Mubarak's a dictatorial scumbag, and people there have hated him for twenty-odd years. Thing is, like the Saudis, he's 'friendly' (despite street-appeasing empty anti-Western rhetoric) to 'our' interests. So guess who's been giving him the $ for his secret police for 20-odd years?

[lagilman]

(for those reading this, Saladin and I are friends. We also disagree frequently about politics)

Your semingly willful misunderstanding of my comment (or the assumption that I am too dumb to know the many governments that play that game) make your comments seem less like discussion and more like an attempt to throw shit for your usual political rant.

I respectfully decline to participate.




[edited to fix smartphone typos]

[saladinahmed.livejournal.com]

Ouch.

My point isn't that *you* don't get it - it's that while
many govts play dirty pool, ours has the world's greatest disjunction between our constantly stated ideals and the reality of the kinds of govts we set up worldwide in order to benefit a corporate economy. No other people on earth are as loud about being champions of freedom - and yet no other govt on earth spends close to what we do on military aid to repressive foreign regimes. We don't do this *hesitatntly* or in spite of our ideals - we do it as a central principle of our foreign policy. I think any discussion of what's going on in Egypt has to talk honestly about what the brave people there are up against - it's not just a homegrown dictator, but hundreds of billions of dollars in secret police and army funding from the biggest funder of such things around. As Americans, we have an obligation to go beyond being inspired or hopeful to telling our govt to stop this shady nonsense.

...and of course, you can call me 'thrower-of-shit' anytime and I'll still know you're awesome :P

[fakefrenchie.livejournal.com]

What he says!

[lagilman]

Lisa -- really? You think that the US government should take an active role (military or political or economic) in tearing down this government? How then is that different from what he's complaining about now - that the US government had a hand in installing this government, and others?

Is it okay if YOU think the cause is right? Or when I think it's right? Or when someone in the White House thinks it's in our political interest?

The reason I did not want to engage with Saladin on this is that he has a long and vocal history of "American government bad! Western civilization corrupt!" in almost any scenario, and he tried to use my words to back that up - when what I had actually said was "WE (the world) NEED TO STAY THE HELL OUT OF THIS AND LET THE EGYPTIAN PEOPLE DECIDE."

That's the definition of a sovereign and democratic nation.

Yes, we should stand up and say "it's time to tear down that wall," as it were. And y'know something? People are doing exactly that. I did exactly that. The government, in its own self-protecting way, is doing that. Hell, even Israel, which has more to lose, at at a much higher risk, than anyone, is doing that.

So being lectured in my own 'living room' about what's going on? No, sorry. That's not discussion, and I don't have the desire to feed that particular troll.

[fakefrenchie.livejournal.com]

I didn't say that US government should take an active role in tearing down any government. I agree with what Saladinahmed said, and he did not say that US government should take an active role in tearing down a government. But since you took offense, I will drop it.

[rwglaub.livejournal.com]

There basically is no government in Cairo right now. The people has lost their fear. Many of the demonstrators are middle- and upper-class people who are tired of the corruption and the mismanagement and the regime failing to do anything for it's own people. The ruling party's headquarters are burning and has been sacked by looters. The police had been breakig heads for the past few days, but stopped when the army showed up. The army has the respect of the Egyptian people; the police do not.Mubarak's son with his family have left for London. The administration has called for the respect of human rights and the lifting of all barriers to communication. Practically we can't do any more than that, because we have no idea of what will happen in the next few hours. All it will take is one stupid person with one stray shot to ignite a firestorm.

Sorry to run on. I'm not going to get much of a weekend...

[lagilman]

Robert, meet Saladin. Saladin, meet Robert. You two should have fun discussing things...

[paulliver.livejournal.com]

In the short run, if the protesters lose, the Egyptians are stuck with a corrupt ruler. If the protesters win, a democratic Egypt will be a more Islamic Egypt, which means Israel and the US could lose an ally.

American political commentators tend to focus on the anti-Americanism of radical Islam, ignoring how the frustration behind the movement is fanned by the corruption in Middle Eastern dictatorships that used to be Cold War pawns of the CIA and KGB. Our best hope is that democratic self-governance will eventually, in of itself, teach tolerance, which could have a moderating effect on regional politics. Historically, when Muslims have been tolerant of each other's differences, they have also been more tolerant of outsiders (like Jews), and when they are intolerant towards outsiders, they are also intolerant of each other.