Have the "where in the storm is Jim Cantore" sweepstakes started yet?

[lagilman]

Storm update, summarized:

GFS predicts the center passes over NYC; Rhode Island and Boston are all gonna die. ECMWF forecast says landfall in Jersey; NYC and CT shoreline, maybe Rhode Island are all gonna die. National Hurricane Center's forecast agrees with ECMWF, but suggests maybe we're all gonna die.

Also: hell yes this is at least partially because of climate change, grow up and deal with facts already, because they're here.

(and yes, the "all gonna die" comment was tongue in cheek, and yes I am aware of the deaths already reported due to Sandy, there is no need to call out the Tacky Joke police on me. This is called Dealing in the face of Oh F*ck)

Remember, kids: if they send Jim Cantore to your neighborhood, it's already too late...
EtA: guess who's in NYC?

At this point, we have no idea how bad it's going to get, but short of Sandy utterly collapsing, there's no way it's going to be not-bad.  I've spoken with my folks and made sure they've cancelled and rescheduled all medical appointments for the next week, and they have supplies properly laid in.  They're not in an evacuation zone either, and they're on the 12th floor of a 13-story building with excellent staff, so all will be well there.  If Mei-Chan needs to go out when the rain or wind is particularly bad, the doormen will make sure she gets walked (the building staff are all fans of Mei-mei, and rightfully so).  

I went out last night to have dinner with friends, and then spent some time hanging in Manhattan, so I've got enough people-time to  keep me sated for a few days. I've got pretty much everything I need here, and a metric load of things to get written, edited, and otherwise beaten into shape, so my plan is to settle in for five days of intense work.  And some baking.  Popovers and cookies are on the agenda for today...

As for other plans... all I can do is hope that the storm blows out before we're supposed to leave for WFC.  So far, the predictions say all will be well...

Comments

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

NHC website tracker shows the center of the storm over Philadelphia Tuesday morning. Are their haruspices wrong?

[lagilman]

NHC's stated policy right now is "it don't matter where the actual landfall is, this storm's so big we're all screwed." But they're putting it south of GFS and more in line with ECMWF's call of NYC (the difference in miles between Phlly and NYC, when you're talking about a storm this size, is...minimal)

The pretty much universal opinion is that the worst of the storm is going to hit north and northeast of the center.

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

Well, the parents-in-law of Younger Son (what the hell is the proper term for our relationship to our daughter-in-law's parents, anyway?) live out on Long Island, so they're toast. Right on tidewater . . .

[lagilman]

Long Island is always toast. The rest of the Eastern Seaboard could get a lovely cooling breeze, and Long Island will lose trees and power. You have to sign a waiver form before you buy a house out there....


(they're the Cape Cod of Away: stick your nose into the Atlantic and she WILL chop it off for you)

[lagilman]

oh, and the word you're looking for is mishpocha.

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

When we were down there in June, I would walk over to the end of the street, look out across the water lapping at my toes, and remind myself, again and again: "They don't have twenty-foot tides here. They don't have twenty-foot tides. We're not all gonna drown in our sleep . . ."

[joycemocha.livejournal.com]

Sounds like Cape Cod and Long Island fit my West Coast Tsunami rule of thumb...if it ain't up on a hillside, I might visit for one night. But no more. And only if there's a close hillside or a LOT of flatland between me and the Pacific.

OTOH, sounds like what they're subjected to is a wee bit more predictable than the long-forecasted OMG-the-PNW-not-California-is-going-into-the-Pacific quake (and there are places where Native villages got submerged due to the type of quake, so yeah).

But still...the Oregonian in me is EXTREMELY cautious about flooding and places like Long Island.

Meanwhile, good luck with Sandy--sounds like you're in a good place, hope it doesn't get too bad!

[lagilman]

Storm flooding for Long Island is a bit like earthquakes to Californians. "Yeah, and?" It happens. It's damned annoying and dangerous, but what're you going to do? The Atlantic is a Grand Old Lady. She is not to be disrespected, but so long as you don't, she tends not to sucker-punch you.

As to being in a good place... actually, we're kind of in the damned bullseye. But what're ya going to do? At least these storms come with early warnings.

[scarlettina.livejournal.com]

Clearly you've made your plans and will stay safe, but I'd feel remiss if I didn't say, "Be safe!" And scritch the kitties for me!

[lagilman]

They're predicting 4-8 foot storm surges for our area, Sunday night/Monday. I suspect a lot of people with boats are at their marinas this weekend...

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

I think an 8' storm surge gives them a saltwater pool . . .

[mtlawson.livejournal.com]

Remember, kids: if they send Jim Cantore to your neighborhood, it's already too late...

They should make t-shirts of that, just like the RPG one that says "When the DM smiles, it's already too late."

[martianmooncrab.livejournal.com]

You are very practical, and the resident felines are going, do we have enough toys and laps to survive this?

[rkbwrites.livejournal.com]

Oh noes, he's in Battery Park, game over, man, game over!

[lagilman]

It sounds...bad.

Mandatory evac for Zone A. Mass transit shuts down at 7pm tonight. Schools closed. 4am Monday morning is now our ETI. 45-75 MPH winds sustained over a 24 hour period. Um. That's up to an 12 on the Beaufort scale.

They're saying a potential surge of up to 10'. TEN FEET. I've sat on the seawalls down the shore, biked along the city edges. If I lived in those areas, I'd be inland already.

(I've sat out major storms before. Once was enough)

[equesgal.livejournal.com]

The thing with Jim is that he loves this stuff...almost as much as thunder snow. ;-)